Showing posts with label Wheat. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Wheat. Show all posts

Friday, February 11, 2011

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Canada regains favour among Egypt's wheat buyers

  • Friday, February 11, 2011
  • Thùy Miên
  • Canada, which has got into difficulty meeting Japanese wheat import term, has regained favour with the world's top buyer, winning its first shipments to Egypt through tender in four months.

    Egypt's main state-run grain buyer, the General Authority for Supply Commodities (Gasc), said after its second wheat tender in less than a week that it was to take 170,000 tonnes of the cereal, with origin split between Australia, Canada and the US.

    The awards to Australia and the US followed the recent pattern, since dwindling stocks accelerated price rises in wheat from France - Egypt's default grain trade partner thanks to its position at the other end of the Mediterranean.

    However, Canadian wheat has not won at an Egyptian tender since October.

    Indeed, Canada triggered doubts over its ability to compete on quality last month when it failed to fill a tender from Japan, its fourth-largest customer, because of concerns over whether wheat protein levels would reach the circa-13.5% required.

    East vs west

    Canada's ability to meet the cut with Gasc, which also enforces stringent protein requirements, appeared to reflect the Jekyll and Hyde nature of the country's harvest last year, Macquarie analyst Alex Bos said.

    The grain which missed out on Japan was spring-sown wheat from the west of Canada, the home to the main agricultural states such as Saskatchewan, where both the quality and the quantity of last year's crop were damaged by heavy rains.

    However, Egypt had purchased soft red winter wheat from the east of the country, which had missed out on weather damage.

    "They had a greater winter wheat crop in Ontario," Mr Bos said.

    "They have the supply just when the world is calling out for wheat," he said.

    Priced out

    The winning Canadian wheat was offered, by Nidera, at $358.50 a tonne, excluding shipping costs of $27-28 a tonne.

    The cheapest French wheat was tendered by Louis Dreyfus at $378.74 a tonne, without freight costs.

    Gasc has not bought French wheat at tender since early December, when it paid Glencore $324.50 a tonne, excluding shipping.

    Japan a week ago resumed purchases of west Canadian wheat, with the Canadian Wheat Board offering 37,000 tonnes with a guaranteed minimum protein level of 13.3%.

    (Source: http://www.agrimoney.com/news/canada-regains-favour-among-egypts-wheat-buyers---2814.html)

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    Wheat and corn futures rise on the CBOT; beef and pork prices mixed

  • Thùy Miên
  • CHICAGO (AP) - Grains futures traded mixed Friday on the Chicago Board of Trade.

    Wheat for March delivery gained 4.25 cents at $8.67 a bushel; March corn added 8 cents at $7.0650 a bushel; March oats fell 1 cent at $4.18 a bushel; while soybeans for March delivery fell 17 cents at $14.16 a bushel.

    Beef and pork traded mixed on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange.

    April live cattle fell 0.37 cent to $1.1270 a pound; March feeder cattle was up 1.20 cent at $1.2602 a pound; April lean hogs fell 1.33 cent at 92.37 cents a pound; while February pork bellies were unchanged at $1.1700 a pound.

    (Source: http://www.canadianbusiness.com/markets/market_news/article.jsp?content=D9LAQNE00)

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    Wheat tumbles on production estimates

  • Thùy Miên
  • Wheat futures traded slightly positive on Thursday in a very narrow range. The movement was restricted by the revised production estimates and the sluggish spot market activities. This kept the prices away from any steep losses or gains.
    U.S. wheat futures declined towards the yesterdays closing due to the strong dollar and the liquidation f the positions. There are no fundamentals which is supporting the fall.
    The fundamentals are strengthened due to demand potential from North Africa and Middle East countries. UN reports of the potential crisis in china due to drought in the wheat growing areas supported the CBOT wheat futures to rally.
    The increase in the prices and volume while the open interest is decreasing indicates that the prices be subjected to correction which might be good buy point for the uptrend. The basis of the wheat prices is recovering which is expected to continue for the day.
    Outlook
    The wheat futures are anticipated to open positive and resume the down trend as the prices don’t find any support from the spot markets. Currently the CBOT prices are trading negative by 0.4%.
    Fundamentals
    The demand and the arrivals across the spot markets are not much prominent. The acreage under wheat has in-creased by 9 lakh ha in the current rabi season. According to second advance estimates the production of wheat is estimated at 81.47 million tons compared to 80.80 million tons last year.

    (Source: http://www.commodityonline.com/futures-trading/technical/Wheat-tumbles-on-production-estimates-21868.html)

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    Wheat drops on ample supply

  • Thùy Miên
  • Wheat yesterday traded with the negative node and settled -0.06% down at 1306 on reduced offtake against adequate stocks.
    We are likely to achieve record production of wheat (81.47 MT), pulses (16.51MT) and cotton (33.9 million bales of 170 kg each) this year," agriculture minister Sharad Pawar told. In Delhi wheat prices gained 4.4 rupee to end at 1330 rupees per 10 kg.
    In yesterday's trading session Wheat has touched the low of 1301.8 after opening at 1306.6, and finally settled at 1306.
    For today's session market is looking to take support at 1301, a break below could see a test of 1296 and where as resistance is now likely to be seen at 1311.8, a move above could see prices testing 1317.6.
    Trading Ideas:
    Wheat trading range is 1295.9-1317.5.
    Wheat settled down on reduced offtake against adequate stocks. We
    Wheat is having resistance at 1312 and support at 1301 level.
    The total sowing acreage of wheat reported at 291.80 lakh hectares on 04th, February 2011.
    In Delhi wheat prices gained4.4 rupee to end at 1330 rupees per 10 kg.

    (Source: http://www.commodityonline.com/futures-trading/tradingtips/Wheat-drops-on-ample-supply-11645.html)

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    Thursday, February 10, 2011

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    Wheat May Witness Selling Pressure

  • Thursday, February 10, 2011
  • Thùy Miên
  • U.S. wheat futures stumbled on a strong dollar and profit taking after Wednesday's gains. The Wednesday rally was due more to corn's strength rather than a fundamental change in the outlook for wheat. While supplies for grains generally are tight, analysts add that wheat appears to have the least upside.

    KCBT wheat ended down 20 cents to $9.68 and MGEX wheat settled down 12 1/4 cents to $10.14 3/4.March CBOT wheat closed down 23 1/4 cents, or 2.6%, to $8.62 3/4 per bushel and the contract is currently trading higher at $8.67, up 42 points.

    Indian wheat futures for the March contract ended the last session down by 0.08% at Rs 1305.8 per 100 kg and the open interest added 6.54%.

    March contract on NCDEX is likely to move lower with support at Rs 1,300 and resistance at Rs 1,310.

    (Source: http://www.indiainfoline.com/Markets/News/Wheat-May-Witness-Selling-Pressure/3546926383)

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    Wheat Falls on Speculation Price Surge May Slow Import Demand

  • Thùy Miên
  • Wheat futures plunged the most since November on speculation that the highest prices in 29 months will slow demand and encourage farmers to plant more.

    U.S. exporters sold 507,310 metric tons in the week ended Feb. 3, down 10 percent from a week earlier, the U.S. Department of Agriculture said today. U.S. spring-wheat planting begins in April, and the area sown with winter wheat for this year’s crop is 9.8 percent bigger than last year, the USDA said last month. Wheat futures are up 69 percent in the past year.

    “High prices beget low prices,” said Dan Kuechenmeister, the manager of the commodities department at RBC Dain Rauscher in Minneapolis. “All the agriculture markets are providing great incentive to try to produce a big crop.”

    Wheat futures for March delivery fell 23.25 cents, or 2.6 percent, to settle at $8.6275 a bushel at 1:15 p.m. on the Chicago Board of Trade, the biggest drop since Nov. 16.

    Yesterday, the price touched $8.9325, the highest for a most-active contract since Aug. 25, 2008, after the USDA cut its outlook for global grain supplies. Drought last year slashed output inRussia, floods eroded crops in Canada and Australia, and dry weather in the U.S. threatened winter crops.

    Wheat was the fourth most-valuable U.S. crop in 2009 at $10.6 billion, behind corn, soybeans and hay, government data show.

    (Source: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-02-10/wheat-plunges-most-since-november-as-high-price-slows-demand-spurs-sowing.html)

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    A lack of rain in China threatens to send wheat prices even higher

  • Thùy Miên
  • FEW commodities are impervious to the “China effect”—the upward pressure on prices from rampant demand in the world’s bounciest big economy. Coffee is one: few Chinese drink the stuff. Wheat has been another. China is the world’s biggest producer, remaining largely self-sufficient by growing some 18% of the global harvest. Higher prices have been caused by growing appetites and supply disruptions elsewhere.

    Things could be about to change. On February 8th the UN Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO) warned that a drought in China’s wheat belt could devastate harvests in June. So the country may buy large amounts on global markets. This could be a “game changer” for wheat, says Sudakshina Unnikrishnan of Barclays Capital.

    The FAO reported that rain and snowfalls were well below average in eight wheat-growing regions. The local weather bureau claims, a bit implausibly, that if there are no showers soon in Shandong province the drought will be the worst for 200 years. The parching threatens a quarter of the country’s crop.

    The worst may not happen. As Kisan Gunjal of the FAO points out, the heavens may yet open in the coming months. China’s government has pledged to divert water to the stricken areas and provide cash for wells. “Weather modification” teams, which apparently helped to keep the Beijing Olympics rain-free, are turning their hand to seeding clouds with chemical-filled artillery shells to encourage downpours.

    China has also built up sizeable wheat stocks—60m tonnes, according to America’s Department of Agriculture—since the 2008 food crisis. But it is likely to want to keep these buffers high, particularly after a series of recent disruptions to supply. Drought in Russia, a big supplier, led to an export ban last year. Floods in Australia—linked to the broader La Niña phenomenon, an occasional wobble in the climate which may also be playing a role in China’s drought—have hit the quality of wheat for export.

    The International Grains Council estimates world wheat production in 2011 will be 647m tonnes, much lower than in the two years before. If China starts buying, importers may step up efforts to secure wheat and exporters may impose more bans. Dark clouds are gathering, but not the right sort.

    (Source: http://www.economist.com/node/18118817?story_id=18118817&fsrc=rss)

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    EU wheat pauses after USDA rally, more gains seen

  • Thùy Miên
  • * European milling wheat futures retreat slightly in midday
    deals on Thursday, handing back some gains from the previous
    session after a bullish U.S. Department of Agriculture report.




     * Dollar's strength against the euro weighed on Chicago
    overnight, but traders said fundamentals remained supportive,
    dealers said. [GRA/]






     * "We are still digesting yesterday's USDA report," a trader
    in Paris said. "Buyers are waiting on the sidelines"




     * The USDA slashed forecasts on Wednesday for global wheat
    ending stocks and U.S. corn stockpiles, which reinforced supply
    worries. [ID:nN09204933]




     * "The market is consolidating," another trader said. "The
    trend remains bullish. What we need to look at is where we'll
    stand at the end of the day, when Chicago opens."




     * Paris March milling wheat BL2H1, Europe's benchmark, was
    down 0.54 percent or 1.5 euros to 277.00 euros ($379) a tonne by
    1221 GMT. The contract reached a new high of 281 euros on
    Wednesday.




     * Paris' November contract BL2X1 was likewise down 2.25
    euros, or 0.92 percent, at 243.50 euros a tonne.




     * Traders said French milling wheat was still competitive
    with U.S. hard red winter wheat, a quality that is still in
    demand from north African and Middle Eastern importers.




     * But others noted that premiums in ports on the cash market
    were going down, suggesting diminishing needs from exporters.




     * Customs data showed France exported 1.4 million tonnes of
    soft wheat in December, raising total exports in the first half
    of the 2010/11 season by 32 percent year-on-year to 10.1 million
    tonnes. [ID:nLDE71910J]




     * Euronext rapeseed futures <0#COM:> in Paris also in the
    red, with the May contract COMK1 off 0.05 percent at 476.50
    euros a tonne.




     




     SPAIN




     * Spanish wheat prices pause after months-long rally due to
    weak demand from indebted livestock farmers in the major
    grain-importing country.
    * Traders say demand in seasonal lull due to reproductive
    cycle, but also due to a drop in meat exports.




     * Prompt feed wheat in top grains port Tarragona offered at
    251 euros/tonne, down 1 euro from a week ago GRAES01.




     * Resales reported for feed wheat at 245 euros in Tarragona,
    replacement quoted at 260 euros.




     * "Everything is below replacement, stocks are falling.
    Sooner or later they'll have to replace, and prices can only go
    up," a trader said.




     * "I would say prices are high enough, but the market is
    heartless. At this rate there'll be just a handful of livestock
    farmers left in Spain, and we'll import meat."




     * Traders said stocks of domestic old crop wheat were also
    drying up, which would make Spain more dependent on imports in
    the coming months and could add further upside to prices.




     




     GERMANY




     * Germany's market was weaker, following the drop in Paris
    but with prices still well supported by expectations of
    increasingly tight global grain supplies as described by the
    USDA report on Wednesday.




     * Standard bread-quality wheat for February delivery in
    Hamburg was offered for sale down one euro at 274 euros a tonne,
    with buyers at around 272 euros.




     * "We have another USDA report on Wednesday this time about
    export sales which could also cause some fireworks," one trader
    said. [ID:nN17540A] "The market seemed to be taking a pause
    today but it is remaining well supported around recent highs."




     * Market talk was also growing that major importer Algeria
    was about to make a purchase after negotiating for much of the
    week in a tender for a nominal 50,000 tonnes of wheat.
    [ID:nLDE71614C]




     * Bids were submitted in Germany to buy 163,944 tonnes of
    barley in the latest round of sales from European Union
    intervention stocks. Some 196,936 tonnes of intervention barley
    is still unsold in Germany. [ID:nLDE7190MP]




     * "This bidding level shows hefty demand for intervention
    feed barley," one trader said. "There is market talk that a
    sizeable volume of the EU sales made in Germany has been sent
    elsewhere in the EU, including big shipments to Spain."




     * The roster in Spain's second-largest grains port Cartagena
    shows a cargo of 29,000 tonnes of barley shipped from Rotterdam,
    as feed makers seek cheaper alternatives to wheat.




     * Prices at 1229 GMT
    Product Last Change Pct Move End 2010 Ytd Pct
    Paris wheat 277.00 -1.50 -0.54 252.50 9.70
    London wheat 211.00 -1.75 -0.82 199.00 6.03
    Paris maize 240.00 -1.25 -0.52 235.00 2.13
    Paris rape 476.50 -0.25 -0.05 497.25 -4.17
    CBOT wheat 876.50 -9.50 -1.07 794.25 10.36
    CBOT corn 695.00 -3.00 -0.43 629.00 10.49
    CBOT soybeans 1448.50 -2.50 -0.17 1393.75 3.93
    Crude oil 86.42 -0.29 -0.33 91.38 -5.43
    Euro/dlr 1.36 0.03 +2.07 1.34 1.88
    * Paris futures prices in euros per tonne, London wheat in
    pounds per tonne and CBOT in cents per bushel.
    (Reporting by Martin Roberts in Madrid, Michael Hogan in
    Hamburg, and Marie Maitre and Valerie Parent in Paris)


    (Source: http://af.reuters.com/article/commoditiesNews/idAFLDE71918X20110210)

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    India's wheat production to be at record high of 81.47MT for 2010-11 crop year news

  • Thùy Miên
  • On record production of wheat and pulses, India's foodgrain output overall in the 2010-11 crop year is expected to be right on track following a drought year with a growth of 6 per cent at 232.07 MT.

    "We are likely to achieve record production of wheat (81.47 MT), pulses (16.51MT) and cotton (33.9 million bales of 170 kg each) this year," agriculture minister Sharad Pawar told reporters after announcing the second advance estimate of foodgrain production for 2010-11 crop year.

    According to Pawar, foodgrain production was likely to to be up at 232.07 MT against 218.11 MT last year. The output therefore would be marginally below the record production of 234.47 MT in 2008-09.

    According to US think-tank International Food Policy Research Institute, (IFPRI)'s Asia director Ashok Gulati, there was no inflation in wheat and rice.

    He added pulses production was up and this year and the population would not have to bear the brunt of high prices it faced in 2009. He added that some relief was on the way in the coming days.

    Noting that the higher production would be achieved under adverse conditions of significant crop damage due to drought in Bihar, Jharkhand, Orissa and West Bengal as also the effects of cyclone, unseasonal rains and severe cold wave and frost condition in several parts of the country, Pawar said the desire was to reach 4 per cent growth but there was drought last year.

    (Source: http://www.domain-b.com/economy/agriculture/20110210_production.html)

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    Wheat surges on domestic demand

  • Thùy Miên
  • Wheat futures traded positive on Wednesday due to emergence of fresh buying on the futures platform. The movement was restricted to a very narrow range as the spot market activities were sluggish across the major markets. The absence of the buyers kept the spot prices steady.
    U.S. wheat futures rallied to their highest point in nearly 30 months on global supply concerns. CBOT March wheat ended 11 3/4 cents or 2.4% higher at $8.86 a bushel.
    Wheat futures further strengthened due to demand potential from North Africa and Middle East countries. UN reports of the potential crisis in china due to drought in the wheat growing areas supported the CBOT wheat futures to rally.
    The increase in the prices and open interest while volume is decreasing indicates that the prices be subjected to correction which might be good buy point for the uptrend. The basis of the wheat prices is recovering which is expected to continue for the day.
    Outlook
    The wheat futures are anticipated to continue the positive trend for the day. Fresh buying might continue for the day that might keep the market positive for the day. Currently the CBOT prices are trading negative by 0.2%.
    Fundamentals
    The demand and the arrivals across the spot markets are much prominent. The acreage under wheat has increased by 9 lakh ha in the current rabi season. According to second advance estimates the production of wheat is estimated at 81.47 million tons compared to 80.80 million tons last year.

    (Source: http://www.commodityonline.com/futures-trading/technical/Wheat-surges-on-domestic-demand-21831.html)

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    Wednesday, February 9, 2011

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    UN Sees Risk of ‘Widespread’ Hoarding, Wheat Gains

  • Wednesday, February 9, 2011
  • Thùy Miên
  • Global wheat harvests may trail demand for a second year, spurring hoarding and further price gains, said the United Nations.

    “Whenever you get the market as tight as we are now, hoarding becomes widespread,” Abdolreza Abbassian, a senior economist at the UN Food and Agriculture Organization in Rome, said in an interview.

    Wheat, corn and soybeans soared to the highest levels since 2008 yesterday as a U.S. government report showed smaller crops and rising demand are eroding global inventories. Governments from Beijing to Belgrade are raising imports, limiting exports or releasing supply from stockpiles to curb inflation. Wheat in Chicago, the global benchmark, soared 73 percent in the past year as drought and floods ruined crops. Dry weather threatens production in China, the top producer.

    “We need at least a 3 percent to 4 percent increase in total wheat production,” Abbassian said yesterday. The drought in China may cut the chance of replenishing world stockpiles, he said. Inventories may drop 6.4 percent this year, FAO data show.

    About 42 percent of the total area planted with wheat in China’s eight major producing provinces has been hurt by a dry spell that may last into the spring, Minister of Agriculture Han Changfu said in a statement yesterday. Rain on the North China Plain has been “substantially” below-normal since October, according to the FAO on Feb. 8.

    Wheat prices may keep rising until the next harvest as importers speed up purchases to cool inflation, Abbassian said. The chances of them staying high or extending gains are stronger than for a decline in the next six months, he said.

    Food Costs

    Higher prices of wheat, rice, sugar and dairy products helped push the FAO’s Food Price Index to a record for a second straight month in January, stoking inflation in emerging economies. The past month’s protests in North Africa and the Middle East were partly linked to food costs.

    China’s consumer prices advanced 3.3 percent last year, breaching a government target of 3 percent. The January rate may have accelerated to 5.4 percent, according to the median estimate of 26 economists surveyed by Bloomberg, from 4.6 percent in December. Inflation inIndonesia, Southeast Asia’s biggest economy, hit a 21-month high of 7.02 percent last month.

    The People’s Bank of China on Feb. 8 raised the one-year lending rate by 0.25 percentage point to 6.06 percent and the one-year deposit rate an equivalent amount to 3 percent.

    Shandong, Henan

    The provinces hit hardest in China are Shandong, Jiangsu, Henan, Hebei and Shanxi, providing 67 percent of production in 2009, the FAO said on Feb. 8. China has 14 million hectares (34.6 million acres) planted with winter wheat in those areas, of which about 5.16 million hectares may have been hurt, it said.

    China is the largest wheat consumer, representing about 17 percent of global use in the year to June 30, according to data from the London-based International Grains Council. The country’s wheat output may have dropped to 114.5 million tons at the last harvest from 115.1 million tons a year earlier, the USDA estimates. Macquarie Group Ltd. expects production to drop a further 4 million tons this year.

    “For a country as big as China showing some early problems, it’s not very encouraging,” Abbassian said. “We decided to flag out China early to give signals to other countries. For spring planting, it could affect decision-making.”

    Planting Response

    China’s potential for increased imports in the year from July 1 may spur U.S. and European farmers to plant more at the expense of other crops, he said. Increased acres and normal weather in Russia may more than compensate for potential losses in China, helping rebuild inventories, he said.

    Global wheat production will probably drop 4.3 percent to 653 million tons in 2010-2011 from the previous year, while demand may expand 1.2 percent to 667 million tons, the FAO said in December. The U.S. Department of Agriculture estimates output at 645.4 million tons and demand at 665.2 million tons. Without a sufficient increase in plantings and normal weather, output may lag behind demand in 2011-2012, he said.

    Wheat for March delivery traded at $8.7875 a bushel in Chicago today after climbing to $8.9325 a bushel yesterday, the highest price for the most active contract since August 2008.

    (Source: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-02-10/un-sees-risk-of-widespread-hoarding-as-wheat-prices-jump-on-china-drought.html)

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    China Wheat Drought May Last to Spring, Minister Says

  • Thùy Miên
  • Feb. 10 (Bloomberg) -- China, the largest wheat consumer, says the drought in the country’s main growing region may be prolonged, as prices surge to a record.

    About 115.95 million mu (7.73 million hectares) of wheat, or 42 percent of the total planted in the eight major producing provinces, is affected by the dry spell that may last into the spring, Minister of Agriculture Han Changfu said in a statement on the department’s website yesterday.

    Rain on the North China Plain has been “substantially” below-normal since October, the United Nations’ Food and Agriculture Organization said Feb. 8. Continued drought could force China, largely self-sufficient in wheat, to buy more grain from overseas suppliers, said Jason Britt, an analyst at Central States Commodities Inc.

    “That sends a little bit of a shiver through the market,” Britt said by telephone from Kansas City, Missouri. China may import 1 million metric tons of wheat this year, compared with 9.8 million tons by Egypt, the top buyer, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture.

    Drought-affected provinces including Hebei, Shanxi, Henan, Shandong, Jiangsu and Anhui have received “precious snow” since yesterday which will help relieve some of the dryness, the National Meteorological Center said on its website. Rain and snow are forecast to continue today, it said.

    ‘One Big Rain’

    Wheat futures jumped to 3,064 yuan ($465) a metric ton on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange today, a record for the most- active contract. The price on the Chicago Board of Trade, a global benchmark, was little changed at $8.8425 a bushel after jumping to $8.9325 a bushel yesterday, the highest since 2008.

    Most crops in China’s wheat region are irrigated and only about 5 percent of the area’s annual precipitation normally falls in the December-February period, said Mike Tannura, a meteorologist at T-Storm Weather in Chicago.

    “Even though it’s been dry relative to average, 95 percent of precipitation occurs from March through November,” Tannura said. “It’s a concern, no question about it, but one big rain in March and all of a sudden they’re back above average.”

    Major wheat growing areas have received about 0.25 inch (0.6 centimeter) of precipitation since Dec. 1, about 20 percent of the usual amount, he said.

    Food Costs

    China pledged to spend an extra 6.7 billion yuan ($1 billion) to boost emergency water supply and irrigation resources, according to a government statement. This is in addition to 10 yuan per mu in direct subsidies to encourage farmers to water wheat, and another 10 yuan to fertilize weakened seedlings, it said.

    Rising food costs have stoked inflation in emerging economies. The past month’s protests in North Africa and the Middle East were partly linked to food costs.

    China’s consumer prices advanced 3.3 percent last year, breaching a government target of 3 percent. The January rate may have accelerated to 5.4 percent, according to the median estimate of 26 economists surveyed by Bloomberg, from 4.6 percent in December. Inflation in Indonesia, Southeast Asia’s biggest economy, was 7.02 percent last month, a 21-month high.

    The People’s Bank of China on Feb. 8 raised the one-year lending rate by a quarter of a percentage point to 6.06 percent and the one-year deposit rate an equivalent amount to 3 percent.

    Top Consumer

    The provinces most affected by the drought are Shandong, Jiangsu, Henan, Hebei and Shanxi, representing 67 percent of the country’s wheat production in 2009, the FAO said. China has 14 million hectares (34.6 million acres) planted with winter wheat in those areas, of which about 5.16 million hectares may have been hurt, it said, citing government estimates.

    China is the largest wheat consumer, representing about 17 percent of global usage in the year to June 30, the London-based International Grains Council predicts. The country’s wheat output may have dropped to 114.5 million tons at the last harvest from 115.1 million tons a year earlier, the USDA estimates. Macquarie Group Ltd. expects production to drop a further 4 million tons this year.

    Premier Wen Jiabao visited Shandong last week during the Lunar New Year holiday to inspect conditions on the ground, according to the Xinhua News Agency. The country has to “prepare for the worst and do our best to combat the drought to ensure a good harvest,” Wen was cited as saying.

    While the UN says global food prices climbed to a record in December, grain stockpiles have been replenished since 2007-2009, when the U.S. State Department estimates there were more than 60 food riots worldwide. Combined inventories of corn, wheat, rice and soybeans will end this year at 457.6 million tons, 21 percent more than in 2007, USDA estimates show.

    China has abundant wheat stockpiles which will lessen the impact of the drought on supply, Li Qi, an analyst at Everbright Futures Co., wrote in a report. Inventories are the highest in seven years, Li said.

    (Source: http://www.businessweek.com/news/2011-02-09/china-wheat-drought-may-last-to-spring-minister-says.html)

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    Wheat production to hit all-time high

  • Thùy Miên
  • Prolonged winter in northern India, rising global demand and government’s thrust are expected to push up the country’s wheat, cotton and pulses production to a record level this year, agriculture minister Sharad Pawar said on Tuesday.

    India’s wheat production is estimated to reach an all-time high of 81.47 million tonne. Overall foodgrain is expected to rise to 232.07 million tonne this year, marginally below the record production of 234.47 million tonne achieved in 2008-09.

    “Such high level of production has been achieved despite significant crop damage due to widespread drought in Bihar, Jharkhand, Orissa and West Bengal and the effects of cyclones, unseasonal and heavy rains and severe cold wave and frost conditions in the several parts of the country,” Pawar said after releasing the second advance estimates of crop production for 2010-11.

    The production of pulses and cotton are also expected to reach record of 16.51 million tonne and 33.9 million bale (one bale is 170 kg), respectively.

    “Due to record pulses production, our imports would decline significantly this year,” Pawar said. The annual domestic consumption of pulses is around 18 million tonne while production had been around 15 million tonne till last year.

    In case of cotton, because of global and domestic demand, the farmers have been getting highest prices this season. Rice output is also projected to rise to 94.01 million tonne against 89.09 million tonne during the last crop year. Last year, rice output had declined by over 10 million tonne due to drought, which had severely hit the country.

    On plummeting onion prices across mandis in Nashik, the hub of onion trade, Pawar said onion production would be less this year as compared to last year, but the output would be sufficient to meet the country’s requirement. “A situation may arise that onion exports could be allowed with some cap on quantity,” he said

    This year onion output is likely to be lower at 12.2 million tonne against 13.6 million tonne last year.

    On the sugarcane growers’ concerns on falling prices amid expected higher sugar output exceeding demand this year, Pawar said there were ‘apprehension that cane arrears might rise.” On the sugar exports front, he said “Let commerce ministry and others assess the situation. One has to see how we will be able to protect the interest of our own consumers first and after that if there is surplus availability”

    Pawar noted that said the international market was favourable for sugar export, fetching one very good price.

    (Source: http://www.financialexpress.com/news/wheat-production-to-hit-alltime-high/748116/0)

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    China Lifts Farm Subsidies

  • Thùy Miên
  • SHANGHAI—China's government outlined farm subsidies and other new support on Wednesday aimed at encouraging grain production as the country braces for the possibility of a weak wheat crop that could further exacerbate a global food inflation scare.

    The State Council, China's highest administrative organ, issued a 10-point plan pledging small amounts of cash to irrigate wheat fields, plant wheat and corn sprouts, and treat crop disease, as well as a $180 million fund to buy equipment and more than $1 billion for drought-alleviation works. Beijing also said it would raise a symbolic minimum purchase price for rice by almost 40%.

    The bulletin, following days of warning from Chinese bureaus about drought over northern parts of the county, and a special wheat-production alert Tuesday from the Rome-based United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization, reflects growing anxiety around the world about food prices. As the measures are rooted in encouraging production, they may not have much effect in the short term.

    The immediate risks were underscored by price gains on Wednesday of as much as 7% on wheat contracts traded in central China on the Zhengzhou Futures Exchange. Globally, wheat traders have bid prices higher in recent weeks on factors as disparate as protests in Egypt and snow in the midwestern U.S.

    A damaged Chinese crop would raise the likelihood that China would enter world markets to import more wheat, an uncomfortable proposition in Beijing where leaders in recent years have appeared to fail in efforts to achieve self-sufficiency in grain production.

    The effects of unexpected new demand from China for wheat would cause wide ripples, especially hitting the poor by driving up costs of flour for bread and noodles. China's rising demand for crude oil, which boosted crude prices, was a factor in encouraging cultivation of corn and sugar for biofuels, instead of food, that contributed to higher prices and food riots in 2008 from Bangladesh to Kenya.

    Social stability in China, too, always has depended on grain. Much of the ritual in the ancient Chinese court revolved around ensuring a strong crop. During the 1950s and 1960s, exaggerated grain-production figures were published to please Mao Zedong. An ancient Chinese adage says, "Raise sons for old age, pile grain for times of famine."

    Yet, China's grain imports have expanded rapidly, undermining Beijing's long-running target of achieving 95% self-sufficiency in grains, namely wheat, corn and rice.

    China made its first sizable imports of U.S. corn in a decade during 2010 and in total bought 1.57 million metric tons on world markets, an 18-fold increase from 2009. Wheat imports expanded 36% in 2010 to 1.2 million tons, and China's rice imports grew 8.6% to 366,171 tons.

    A closely watched source, the U.S. Department of Agriculture, won't update estimates of China's wheat production until May. Currently, it forecasts negligible imports by China this year because of the country's large stockpiles.

    Wednesday's policies to support production aren't the first in recent weeks, and they may take time to have an effect.

    President Hu Jintao's administration came into office hoping to solidify support in the countryside with increases of around 40% in the minimum buying price for grains in both 1994 and 1996. It also ended a grain tax, which had existed thousands of years. But China's challenge is to feed more than 20% of the global population with perhaps half that percentage of Earth's arable land.

    Now, drought has affected primary wheat growing areas at a time when inflation—led by food prices—is a global worry. In its notice Tuesday, the FAO said the winter crop, due to be harvested by June, is at risk if especially cold weather arrives this month or dryness persists as China's weather bureau is forecasting through at least Feb. 20.According to Gao Xiuqi, a 58-year-old in Henan Province's Pingxi County, the problem on his wheat farm isn't limited to a lack of rainfall since Oct. 1. Mr. Gao is also worried about the $6.40 or so he needs to spend to power a diesel pump to irrigate each hectare. "The cost is increasing while the production is curtailed," he said by telephone on Wednesday. Wheat prices were markedly higher Wednesday as Chinese wholesale markets reopened after Lunar New Year. On the Zhengzhou Futures Exchange, strong gluten wheat for September delivery surged 7%—the limit—to 3,051 yuan ($465.50) per metric ton. While Zhengzhou was closed for the holiday, soft winter red wheat for March delivery gained around 4.5% in Chicago.

    During China's New Year holiday last week, the Ministry of Agriculture issued a report that said around 35% of the plantable area for winter wheat is affected by the drought. The FAO cited some of the same figures.

    In its 10-point plan, the State Council said the government will spend small amounts, such as 10 yuan per mu, or about $2 per hectare, in subsidies for wheat-field irrigation, as well as allocate just over $1 billion for infrastructure to address the drought conditions. The government said it would educate farmers and also launch a grain-production campaign. It is unclear whether the spending is all new, as the Ministry of Agriculture last week also announced new spending plans.

    The farm policy was the top story on the main China Central Television news broadcast Wednesday, taking up about a third of the report. Before addressing key details of the State Council plan and the risks to production zones, the report kicked off with a survey of advanced corn- and rice-farming techniques being employed in the arid, southern province of Hainan.

    (Source: http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703716904576133961987047574.html?mod=googlenews_wsj)

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    India set for record wheat, pulses & maize output

  • Thùy Miên
  • The challenges of the new era of differential subsidies will have to be met by skilful management of rice and wheat procurement and MSP systems.(file photo)

    NEW DELHI, FEB. 9:

    In what could perhaps have some softening impact on runaway food inflation, the country will produce record levels of wheat, pulses, cotton and maize this year.

    According to the second advance estimates of crop output for 2010-11, released by the Agriculture Minister, Mr Sharad Pawar, here on Wednesday, a record 81.47 million tonnes (mt) of wheat is expected to be harvested this time. That makes it the third successive year of over 80 mt of grain production, which will start arriving in the markets from next month.

    New highs

    Even more significant is the pulses output, which, for the first time, will cross the 15-mt mark and touch 16.51 mt. Likewise, production of maize (which, along with cotton, has been one of the success stories in the last decade) is estimated at 20.03 mt, thereby scaling the 20-mt barrier.

    Cotton, too, will see an unprecedented output of 339.27 lakh bales, though this is partly a result of a change in estimation methods. The Agriculture Ministry's figures have traditionally been lower than that of the Cotton Advisory Board (CAB). The revised methodology has meant that Krishi Bhawan's estimate of 339.27 lakh bales for 2010-11 is higher than the CAB's 329 lakh bales.

    Apart from these major crops, production of tur (arhar or pigeon-pea) and sesamum are also reckoned to touch new highs of 3.18 mt and 0.83 mt, respectively.

    The other notable news is in sugarcane, where the Ministry has revised upwards the size of the 2010-11 crop to 336.698 mt, from the 324.912 mt in the first advance estimate. Whether this would translate into higher sugar production ? relative to the current official estimate of 245 lakh tonnes ? is to be seen.

    Total output

    Speaking to newspersons, Mr Pawar said that the total foodgrain output of 232.07 mt for this year would be only marginally below the 234.47 mt achieved in 2008-09.

    ?Such a high level of production will be achieved despite significant crop damage due to widespread drought in Bihar, Jharkhand, Orissa and West Bengal and the effects of cyclones, un-seasonal heavy rains and severe cold wave and frost conditions in several parts of the country,? the Minister noted.

    He claimed that the Centre's ?focussed interventions? through schemes such as the Rashtriya Krishi Vikas Yojana, National Food Security Mission and Accelerated Pulses Production Programme had led to an overall ?rejuvenation? of the country's agriculture sector.

    (Source: http://www.thehindubusinessline.com/industry-and-economy/article1200211.ece?homepage=true)

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    Indonesia to boost rice stocks amid global food fears

  • Thùy Miên
  • JAKARTA (Reuters) – Indonesia ordered hefty rice imports on Wednesday to boost stocks by a third in the latest sign that governments concerned about rising food prices and dwindling supplies are rushing into the market and could drive inflation even higher.

    Global food prices have climbed to record highs on shrinking supplies of wheat, corn, soybean and oilseeds. While rice has been less of a worry thanks to ample supplies in the top two exporters, Thailand and Vietnam, traders said other Asian governments may soon seek to boost rice stocks too.

    Adding to gathering nervousness among governments over food supplies, China plans subsidies to boost grain output this year, state radio said in a report on its website.

    "Maintaining a stable grain output increase has a very important meaning to managing inflation expectations, stabilizing general consumer prices, and realizing rapid and stable economic growth as well as social harmony and stability," the report said, citing a regular state council meeting held by Premier Wen Jiabao on Wednesday.

    The impact of Cyclone Yasi in Australia has exacerbated food worries. The chairman of Australia's main sugar industry group Canegrowers said up to a quarter of the sugar cane crop in the state of Queensland may have been lost.

    "Given there has been such a wide area of impact from this cyclone, we are looking at losses on the outer edges of 5 to 10 percent and close to the center of the cyclone up to 50 percent of the crop could be lost," Alf Cristaudo told Reuters in an interview.

    The latest monthly grains report from the U.S. government threatened to further stoke concerns over crops being increasingly used for fuel. The U.S. Department of Agriculture slashed its forecast for corn stockpiles 9 percent, projecting the tightest supply since the Great Depression as a record amount of the crop is used to make ethanol.

    Problems with Australia's wheat crop as well as lingering effects of last summer's drought in the Black Sea region have boosted the role of the United States on the export market.

    In January, global food prices tracked by the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization hit their highest level on record. The FAO said last week its Food Price Index rose for the seventh month in a row to reach 231 in January, the highest level since records began in 1990.

    The rising prices have raised concerns over inflation, protectionism and social unrest, factors behind the 2008 food crisis, and prodded the G20 to promise action.

    WILL RICE PRICES SURGE TOO?

    Indonesia's government met to discuss food security on Wednesday. Chief Economic Minister Hatta Rajasa asked state procurement agency Bulog to secure imports to gradually boost rice stockpiles to 2 million tonnes from the current 1.5 million tonnes, underlining fears shortages could cause price spikes.

    Traders said other governments may also look to increase stocks despite ample supplies in Thailand and Vietnam.

    Bangladesh said it was buying 200,000 tonnes of parboiled rice from Thailand in their first government-to-government deal for the grain.

    The Philippines, however, held back on importing more despite a recommendation by a government panel to build stocks above a 1 million ton target.

    Traders also warned of a remote chance the top two exporters, facing food inflation pressures as well, may choose to keep more supplies at home.

    "Rising supply from the world's top two exporters is likely to weigh prices down. However, there could be steady demand from traditional buyers such as the Middle East, African countries and demand elsewhere in Asia that could help support prices," said Kiattisak Kallayasirivat of trading firm Novel Agritrade.

    Indonesia surprised markets last month by buying nearly five times as much rice as expected, then suspended rice import duties, signaling it could look to stockpile more.

    Its import plans are a turnaround from minimal purchases last year and show efforts by Southeast Asia's biggest economy to be self-sufficient in rice have not succeeded.

    Indonesian President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono has called on people to start planting food at home, and told the World Economic Forum in Davos the next economic war could be over the race for scarce resources, due to growing populations.

    Food price inflation led the central bank to hike interest rates last week for the first time in two years, and protests over food prices were seen as a major factor in the ousting of Indonesia's autocratic President Suharto in 1998.

    By contrast in the Philippines, policymakers appear not to be overly worried about rising food costs. The central bank is expected to leave policy rates unchanged at a record low on Thursday, and has said there is no evidence that commodity prices are spilling over into the broader economy.

    The country may buy less than 1 million tonnes of rice this year despite a government panel recommendation for a higher purchase volume, with forecasts of a good first quarter crop, a government official said.

    Early rains this year have helped rice crops and along with hefty stockpiles from previous years' imports, gives Manila -- the world's biggest buyer in recent years -- room to buy less than the record 2.45 million tonnes it purchased last year.

    "We are preventing over-importation because our farmers will be disadvantaged," said agriculture secretary Proceso Alcala.

    Thai rice rose to $545 per ton from last week's $540 per ton on the back of loading demand after exporters committed last month to sell 820,000 tonnes of rice to Indonesia.

    Benchmark Thai 100 percent B-grade white rice prices are likely to rise to $550 a ton by the end of February and $567.5 a ton in March from around $540 a ton now, given expectations of additional orders from Indonesia, Bangladesh and Sri Lanka, a Reuters poll shows.

    Rice lagged other staple grains last year, falling 13 percent while corn and wheat surged around 50 percent. Rice prices have only gained 2 percent this year and are far below a record $1,050 a ton hit in 2008.

    Still, Reuters technical analyst Wang Tao sees Thai white rice rising into a range of $630-$673 per ton over the next three months based on chart indicators.

    Some traders say rice prices could drop in the coming weeks on increased supply because Vietnam is due to start harvesting its major winter-spring rice crop by end-February.

    "Prices will fall in March as there are no more government deals while the Philippines has not detailed its importing plan but it may buy less than last year," one said.

    Thailand is also about to start harvesting its second crop, expected to be around 9.5 million tonnes, the highest ever and well above 8.8 million tonnes last year.

    (Source: http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20110209/wl_nm/us_asia_rice_3)

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    Global Wheat Supply and Demand Estimates Stabilize in January

  • Thùy Miên
  • The USDA published its World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates Report and the report on wheat was surprisingly neutral given the domestic wheat quality concerns which arose between now and the previous month's report.

    The projected U.S. wheat ending stocks for the 2010/11 season remain unchanged from the previous month. The previous month's projection of U.S. exports of 1.3 billion bushels remains unchanged although the classes of wheat being exported have changed. Exports of Hard Red Winter (HRW) and White wheat are each expected to rise by 10 million bushels. Offsetting that increase is a decline in exports of 20 million bushels of Hard Red Spring (HRS).

    Global Supplies

    Global wheat supply estimates are lower than the previous month due to revisions in stock and production estimates. Kazakhstan had a slight increase in its estimate of beginning stocks of .15 million tons while estimates of production in the Ukraine are lower than the previous month by 0.35 million tons.

    Imports and Exports

    World estimates of wheat imports and exports for 2010/11 are slightly lower than the previous month and reflect the pace of sales and shipments reported to date.

    IMPORTS

    Country/Region

    Change in
    Est. Imports

    Pakistan

    -0.1 Million Metric Tons

    Syria

    -0.1 Million Metric Tons

    Iraq

    -0.1 Million Metric Tons

    EXPORTS

    Country

    Change in
    Est. Exports

    Canada

    +0.50 Million metric tons

    Pakistan

    +0.20 Million metric tons

    Europe

    -0.50 Million metric tons

    Ukraine

    -0.50 Million metric tons

    Consumption

    Global wheat consumption estimates for 2010/11 are also projected slightly lower than the previous month.

    Feed / Industrial Use

    Country

    Change in
    consumption

    Additional Information

    Argentina

    +0.45 Million metric tons

    100% of increase is in industrial use

    Canada

    -0.55 Million metric tons

    .40 million metric ton decline in wheat feed use

    Middle East

    -0.20 Million metric tons

    100% of decline is in wheat feed use

    Ending stock estimates are projected higher by .10 million metric tons with projected increases in Europe, the Ukraine, Kazakhstan and Canada being offset by declines in Pakistan and Argentina.

    Global Ending Stocks

    Country

    Change in
    Est. Exports

    Ukraine

    +0.15 Million metric tons

    Kazakhstan

    +0.15 Million metric tons

    Europe

    +0.50 Million metric tons

    Canada

    +0.05 Million metric tons

    Argentina

    -0.45 Million metric tons

    Pakistan

    -0.30 Million metric tons

    The world wheat stocks-to-use ratio, which is the ratio of the projected ending stocks and projected total use or demand in a season, at 26.78% is lower than last year's ending ratio of 30.29% but higher than the 2008 all-time low of 20.21%.

    Click to enlarge

    Source: World Agricultural Outlook Board/The Mays Report

    Note that the current global stocks-to-use ratio is at or above four of the five historical lows since 1974. The domestic wheat crop condition is the missing piece of the puzzle. Crop conditions were deteriorating in the previous month's domestic wheat outlook. If the crop condition continues to deteriorate, potentially lowering the harvest yield and crop quality, prices could move even higher. However, improving domestic wheat crop conditions combined with a stabilizing global supply and demand picture may signal a price top in wheat.

    Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.

    Additional disclosure: I have a February bear credit spread in MOS, whose movement is correlated with wheat prices.

    (Source: http://seekingalpha.com/article/251890-global-wheat-supply-and-demand-estimates-stabilize-in-january)

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    Wheat Jumps to Highest Since 2008 as Chinese Crop Faces Drought

  • Thùy Miên
  • Feb. 9 (Bloomberg) -- Wheat rose to the highest in more than two years in Chicago as drought threatened crops in China, the world’s biggest grower, and as governments increased purchases to contain inflation and protests.

    Wheat has surged 83 percent in Chicago and doubled in Paris in the past year as drought in Russia and floods in Canada and Australia hurt crops. Countries in the Middle East and North Africa are speeding up grain purchases after rising food prices contributed to riots and protests. Now China is facing severe drought in the main winter-wheat growing region.

    “Wheat is at the center of issues for the market now,” said Han Sung Min, a broker at Korea Exchange Bank Futures Co. in Seoul. “China’s poor crop weather has fueled concern over tightening supplies after some countries in North Africa and the Middle East rushed to secure food.”

    Protests have spread across North Africa and the Middle East in the last month, driving Tunisia’s President Zine El Abidine Ben Ali into exile after 23 years in power and Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak to pledge an end to his three-decade- long rule by September. Riots erupted in part because of food prices the United Nations says reached a record last month. China raised interest rates for the third time in four months from today to contain inflation.

    March-delivery wheat rose as much as 1.2 percent to $8.845 a bushel on the Chicago Board of Trade, the highest since August 2008, and was at $8.8325 at 1:36 p.m. Paris time.

    Wheat Growing

    The drought in China’s wheat-growing regions may worsen “rapidly” as the weather gets warmer, the Ministry of Agriculture said Feb. 4. The drought affected 35 percent of wheat crops in eight provinces as of that date, it said.

    “On the weather front, the drought in China is at center- stage right now, as wheat is starting to come out of dormancy,” Paris-based farm adviser Agritel said in a commentary today.

    Milling wheat for March delivery traded on NYSE Liffe in Paris rose 1 percent to 278.75 euros ($380.16) a metric ton, while November-delivery wheat, the contract with the most volume and greatest open interest, rose 1.4 percent to 245 euros.

    France will export 12.1 million tons of soft wheat outside the European Union in the year through June, crops office FranceAgriMer said today, raising last month’s estimate by 300,000 tons.

    Chinese wheat output may have dropped to 114.5 million tons at the last harvest, compared with 115.1 million tons a year earlier, according to U.S. Department of Agriculture estimates. Macquarie expects output to drop a further 4 million tons this year. The USDA will update its outlook today.

    Wheat Reserves

    U.S. wheat reserves on May 31 probably will total 808.3 million bushels, compared with 818 million forecast in January and 976 million a year earlier, a Bloomberg survey showed. World wheat inventories may decline to 177.2 million tons, a survey found, from 178 million estimated by the USDA in January and 197.4 million a year earlier.

    The USDA may cut its forecast for world corn inventories before the Northern Hemisphere harvests to 125.4 million tons, from 127 million estimated in January and 147.1 million a year earlier, the survey showed. That would be the lowest level of reserves since 2007.

    March-delivery corn rose as much as 1 percent to $6.8025 a bushel and was last at $6.79. The price reached $6.825 on Feb. 7, the highest since July 15, 2008.

    Soybeans for March delivery gained as much as 0.6 percent to $14.4325 a bushel and last traded at $14.425. The price touched $14.525 on Feb. 3, the highest since July 2008.

    --With assistance from Luzi Ann Javier in Singapore. Editors: John Deane, Dan Weeks

    (Source: http://www.businessweek.com/news/2011-02-09/wheat-jumps-to-highest-since-2008-as-chinese-crop-faces-drought.html)

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    Wheat plunges on weak exports

  • Thùy Miên
  • Wheat yesterday traded with the negative node and settled -0.54% down at 1300.8 as crops in Ukraine escaped cold-weather damage, signaling the nation will be able to sustain exports.
    Egypt, the world's biggest wheat buyer, bought 170,000 tons of soft wheat and canceled a tender for hard wheat. Global wheat demand will outstrip production for the first time in three years, draining stockpiles to 178 million tons at the end of this season.
    In Delhi wheat prices gained 1.25 rupee to end at 1331.65 rupees per 10 kg. In yesterday's trading session Wheat has touched the low of 1300.2 after opening at 1305, and finally settled at 1300.8.
    For today's session market is looking to take support at 1299, a break below could see a test of 1297.2 and where as resistance is now likely to be seen at 1303.8, a move above could see prices testing 1306.8.
    Trading Ideas:
    Wheat trading range is 1297.5-1307.1.
    Wheat ended weak as crops in Ukraine escaped cold-weather damage
    Wheat is having resistance at 1303.80 and support at 1299 level.
    Global wheat demand will outstrip production for the first time in three years
    In Delhi wheat prices gained1.25 rupee to end at 1331.65 rupees per 10 kg.

    (Source: http://www.commodityonline.com/futures-trading/tradingtips/Wheat-plunges-on-weak-exports-11595.html)

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    Tuesday, February 8, 2011

    0

    Wheat Jumps to Highest Since 2008 as Drought May Harm China Crop

  • Tuesday, February 8, 2011
  • Thùy Miên
  • Wheat climbed to the highest level since August 2008 as drought threatened to damage crops in China, curbing global supplies, and Middle Eastern and African nations boosted purchases to tackle food inflation. Corn and soybeans also advanced.

    The March-delivery contract climbed as much as 0.8 percent to $8.815 a bushel, the highest price for the most-active contract on the Chicago Board of Trade since Aug. 25, 2008. The grain traded at $8.775 per bushel at 12:58 p.m. in Singapore.

    Wheat has surged 82 percent in the past year as drought in Russia, floods in Canada and parched fields across Europe hurt crops. Countries in the Middle East and North Africa are accelerating grain purchases as rising food prices contributed to riots and protests. China, the largest wheat producer, is facing severe drought in the main, winter-wheat growing region.

    “Wheat is at the center of issues for the market now,” said Han Sung Min, a broker at Korea Exchange Bank Futures Co. in Seoul. “China’s poor crop weather has fueled concern over tightening supplies after some countries in North Africa and the Middle East rushed to secure food.”

    World food prices rose to a record in January, the United Nations’ Food & Agriculture Organization said on Feb. 3. China raised interest rates for the third time in four months, effective from today, to contain inflation.

    Drought Warning

    The drought in China’s wheat-growing regions may worsen “rapidly” as the weather gets warmer, the Ministry of Agriculture said on Feb. 4. The drought affected 35 percent of wheat crops in eight provinces as of Feb. 4, it said.

    Wheat jumped as much as 6.5 percent to a record 3,048 yuan ($463) a metric ton on China’s Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange, which reopened for trade today after the Lunar New Year break.

    Chinese wheat output may have dropped to 114.5 million tons at the last harvest, compared with 115.1 million tons a year earlier, according to U.S. Department of Agriculture estimates. Macquarie expects output to drop a further 4 million tons this year. The USDA will update its outlook today.

    U.S. wheat reserves on May 31 probably will total 808.3 million bushels, compared with 818 million forecast in January and 976 million a year earlier, a Bloomberg survey showed. World wheat inventories may decline to 177.2 million tons, a survey found, from 178 million estimated by the USDA in January and 197.4 million a year earlier.

    The USDA may cut its forecast for world corn inventories before the northern hemisphere harvests to 125.4 million tons, from 127 million estimated in January and 147.1 million a year earlier, the survey showed. Reserves would fall to the lowest since 2007.

    March-delivery corn rose as much as 0.6 percent to $6.78 a bushel and was at $6.7575 at 12:26 p.m. in Singapore. The price reached $6.825 on Feb. 7, the highest since July 15, 2008.

    Soybeans for March delivery gained as much as 0.5 percent to $14.415 a bushel and last traded at $14.3675. The price touched $14.525 on Feb. 3, the highest since July 2008.

    (Source: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-02-09/wheat-advances-nearing-29-month-high-as-drought-threatens-china-crops.html)

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